Blockchain data analysis: 2025 Recap, 2026 loading

The 2025 market year will be defined by structural maturity. Bitcoin effectively "graduated" from its speculative four-year halving cycle, evolving into a sophisticated fiscal hedge. While traditional retail "Alt-Seasons" failed to materialize in their historical form, the underlying market infrastructure reached record-breaking levels of liquidity and regulatory clarity. The emergence of Stablecoin Rails and Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWA) provided a structural floor for 2026, with an expectation of a global shift from monetary restriction to fiscal expansion.

I. The 2025 "Anomaly": Breaking the Halving Tradition

Historically, the year following a Bitcoin halving (2013, 2017, 2021) was marked by a post-event lag followed by a parabolic spike. 2025 broke this "left-to-right" programming.

• ETF Absorption: In 2024, US Spot ETFs absorbed supply, and a Trump win in the US election sent the crypto market to rally. Institutional net inflows of $1.9B+ in the first week of January alone helped the rally. BTC reached an ATH of $126,000 in October 2025. But we can see a shift from the speculative halving. This could also be as the amount of bitcoins being mined decreases with every half, so there is less of an impact on the price.

II. The M2 Divergence: A New Macro Identity

The most critical technical shift of 2025 was the decoupling of Bitcoin from Global M2 Money Supply growth. Bitcoin is no longer rising simply when the M2 Money Supply rises.

BTC has shifted from a Liquidity Proxy (benefiting from "easy money") to a Fiscal Hedge (benefiting from "sovereign debt concerns").

III. Altcoins: The Era of "Sector-Specific" Seasons

2025 was the year "Alt-Season" died as a market-wide phenomenon. The total crypto market cap reached peaked at ~$4.3T, but gains were not distributed equally.

• Capital Isolation: Institutional capital via ETFs is "trapped" in BTC/ETH and cannot rotate into smaller caps.

• Winner-Take-Most: Only specific sectors saw "seasons." AI Infrastructure (DePIN) and Real World Assets (RWA) outperformed the broader market, while 2021-era "dino-coins" hit new lows against BTC.

IV. Stablecoins: The Liquidity Multiplier

2025 was the "Stablecoin Summer," where these assets moved from trading collateral to primary payment rails.

Metric	Dec 2024	Dec 2025 (Est.)	2026 Forecast
Total Stablecoin Cap	$170B	~$280B	$450B+
Monthly Settlement Vol	$1.1T	$4.2T	$10T+
USDC/USDT Velocity	6.2x	9.4x	15x

• 2026 Outlook: With the anticipated CLARITY Act in the US, 2026 will see the first "Yield-Bearing" regulated stablecoins, potentially draining trillions from traditional Money Market Funds (MMFs).

V. Tokenization: The RWA Breakout

Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization was the "silent winner" of 2025, growing from a niche DeFi experiment to a $20B+ sector.

• Sovereign Collateral: Tokenized US Treasuries reached $9.2B in AUM by late 2025. Institutions are now using "On-chain T-Bills" as collateral for 24/7 repo markets, bypassing the T+2 settlement friction of legacy finance.

• Institutional "On-Ramping": Projects like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Franklin Templeton’s FOBXX have created a blueprint for "Atomic Settlement." In 2026, we expect the focus to shift from "private chains" to public L1/L2 settlement, as liquidity providers demand composability.

There are other salient points, such as the Bitcoin decoupling from commodities such as Gold and Silver at the end of 2025, Ethereum's rather weak performance during this cycle when compared to the previous one (at certain times during the last cycle, people were whispering about a "flippening" of BTC-ETH that might happen), and the rise of prediction markets. 

Other notable charts:

2026: The Year of Global Liquidity

2026 is positioned as the year the "pipes" of global finance reopen.

1. The Pivot to Easing: With inflation stabilizing in Tier-1 economies, one can anticipate a coordinated shift toward rate cuts in certain economies in Q1 2026. This will lower the "opportunity cost" of holding non-yielding assets.

2. The CLARITY Act: Anticipated US legislation for 2026 will likely provide the legal framework for Altcoin ETFs (Solana, Chainlink), allowing the "trapped" institutional liquidity to finally flow into the mid-cap sector.

3. Stablecoin Velocity: We expect stablecoin market caps to continue growing in 2026, acting as the primary medium for on-chain settlement as RWA tokenization goes mainstream.

Conclusion

2025 proved that Bitcoin is no longer a "child" of the halving cycle; it is following a mature pillar of the global macro environment. While the broad "Alt-Season" was absent, the foundation for 2026 is the strongest in history, based more on sensibility rather than coincidental speculation. Investors should look for "Narrative" or "Strategic" Lead rather than "Cycle Lead" in the coming year.